(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks came off Monday’s lows amid intense volatility, with investors still seeking safety in Treasuries as the specter of a Federal Reserve policy mistake and rising geopolitical tensions roiled markets around the globe.
The S&P 500 cut its losses by half, with volume more than 80% higher than the average of the past month. The Nasdaq 100’s latest beating pushed it nearly 15% from an all-time high, while the Russell 2000 of small caps approached a bear market after plunging almost 20% from its peak. Haven currencies outperformed on concern over potential Russian military action against Ukraine. Bitcoin erased its decline.
Traders remain resolute in anticipating the Fed will plow on with increasing borrowing costs even as riskier assets tumble. Swap markets show a quarter-point hike in March and close to a full percentage point rise for the whole of 2022. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said January’s equity rout “fits nicely” with his so-called fire and ice narrative, according to which markets were set for a drawdown amid tighter policy and decelerating economic growth. In anything, the retreat has further to go as “winter is here” for stocks, he wrote.
“There’s certainly a lot on the table this week, and I think the market behavior and all of these risks that they’re facing really is testing the mettle of the long-term investor,” JoAnne Feeney, partner at Advisors Capital Management, told Bloomberg Television Monday.
The slide in stocks comes as cracks starting forming in the credit market, where traders had been sanguine about the prospects for companies to repay debt. A measure of credit risk in the U.S. jumped to the highest level since November 2020 — up for a seventh straight day.
Speculators who scrapped bullish bets on the dollar at the fastest pace in more than 18 months are now missing out on the currency’s rally ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday. Net-long aggregate speculative positions versus major peers have dropped the most since June 2020, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Read: U.S. Orders Diplomat Families Out of Ukraine Citing War Risk
U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a call with European leaders as western nations work to strike a unified position on Russia. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization said it would boost its deployments in eastern Europe in a bid to deter a new invasion in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied he’s planning an attack.
For more market analysis, read our MLIV blog.
What to watch this week:
- IMF launches the World Economic Outlook update Tuesday.
- U.S. U.S. Conf. Board consumer confidence Tuesday.
- Fed monetary policy decision Wednesday.
- EIA crude oil inventory report Wednesday.
- U.S. new home sales, wholesale inventories Wednesday.
- South African Reserve Bank rate decision Thursday.
- U.S. initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP Thursday.
- Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence Friday.
- U.S. consumer income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment Friday.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 fell 1.8% as of 1:56 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%
- The MSCI World index fell 2.1%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
- The euro was little changed at $1.1334
- The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3477
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 113.72 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 1.72%
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to -0.11%
- Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.13%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $83.36 a barrel
- Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,844.50 an ounce
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