(Bloomberg) — Health Secretary Sajid Javid refused to rule out stronger U.K. Covid-19 rules before Christmas after the nation’s top health advisers urged greater limits to contain infections they estimate are likely running in the hundreds of thousands per day.
“It’s time to be more cautious: we know this thing is spreading more rapidly,” Javid told BBC News on Sunday.
When asked whether he could rule out a so-called circuit-breaker lockdown within days, he replied: “There are no guarantees in this pandemic. At this point, we just have to keep everything under review.”
U.K. Covid cases have surged to record levels as the fast-spreading omicron variant takes hold. Total positive tests have exceeded 90,000 for each of the past two days. Cases of the omicron strain are said to be doubling every two to three days.
Minutes released Saturday by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, or SAGE, suggested that without stronger rules, hospitalizations could reach a peak of at least 3,000 a day — far above current levels.
The projections have put Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a bind, squeezed between scientific advisers calling for urgent action, and MPs who just last week rebelled in record numbers against far milder Covid rules than SAGE now say are warranted to keep health services afloat.
To make matters worse for the prime minister, on Saturday evening, his minister in charge of post-Brexit negotiations, Lord David Frost, quit his post, openly undermining Johnson over both his negotiations with the European Union and his response to the surging pandemic.
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“We also need to learn to live with Covid and I know that is your instinct too,” Frost wrote in his resignation letter to Johnson. “I hope we can get back on track soon and not be tempted by the kind of coercive measures we have seen elsewhere.”
The letter showed the kind of pressures being exerted on Johnson by members of his own party to avoid bringing in tougher Covid measures. Last week, 100 Tory Members of Parliament voted against plans to introduce Covid passes as a requirement of entry to venues and large events. The measure was only approved because of support from the opposition Labour Party.
It leaves Johnson with the quandary of whether or not to risk the wrath of his rank-and-file MPs to bring in tougher measures. They’re already angry at missteps by the prime minister that started with his botched attempt to prevent Parliament’s suspension of his friend, Conservative MP Owen Paterson, over lobbying violations. That culminated in the party’s calamitous defeat in a special election on Thursday to replace Paterson — whose former seat of North Shropshire had been Tory for almost two centuries.
Javid told Sky News that the government needs to balance scientific advice with the impact measures such as lockdowns have across society, including on businesses and children.
“I can’t stress enough how the situation today, in terms of our defenses, is very different,” said Javid, referring to the U.K.’s high vaccination rate and rising booster program.
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Over half of adults in the U.K. are now boosted, Javid said, and the number of booster vaccines delivered on Saturday set another record.
“If there was a need to take any further action, we would recall parliament and it would have to be a decision for parliament,” he said.
Labour MP Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said on Sky that Javid and Johnson are putting party politics ahead of public health when considering their policy options.
SAGE said that to avoid thousands of daily hospitalizations swamping the health system, “more stringent measures would need to be implemented very soon.”
Javid told Sky the government is in touch “hourly” with its scientific advisers, and has shown in the past that “we will do what is necessary” to fight the pandemic.
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Cabinet Office Minister Steve Barclay will hold talks on Sunday with regional governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to discuss how to approach the surge in Covid cases, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The SAGE document said omicron is spreading fastest in London, where Mayor Sadiq Khan on Saturday declared a “major incident,” allowing the city to coordinate emergency services and access government support. Khan on Sunday told BBC News he thinks it’s “inevitable” new restrictions will be needed.
“Sooner rather than later we’re going to need to look at social distancing, we’re going to need to look at household mixing,” Khan said.
Khan said that even absent a formal lockdown, the current wave of the virus is an “existential” threat to businesses in the city center, including hospitality and theaters, as customers stay away in droves. He urged fresh government assistance.
“This is as bad as March in 2020,” Michelin-starred London chef and restaurateur Michel Roux Jr said on Sky. “What should be our most prosperous month is now turning into a loss.”
(Updates with additional quotes from Javid, Streeting, Roux)
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